The impact of the election result on Islam and Muslims in Turkey

Turkey is gearing up for a crucial election on 14 May 2023, when voters will choose both a president and a parliament for a five-year term. The incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been in power since 2003, faces a strong challenge from the opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who heads the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nation Alliance of several smaller parties. Two independent candidates, Sinan Oğan and Muharrem İnce, are also in the race, hoping to appeal to different segments of the electorate.

The election will be held under a new presidential system that was approved by a narrow margin in a 2017 referendum and implemented in 2018. The system gives the president sweeping executive powers and abolishes the post of prime minister. To win the presidency outright, a candidate needs to secure more than 50% of the votes in the first round. If no one achieves this threshold, a runoff will take place on 28 May between the top two contenders.

According to recent polls, Erdoğan leads the field with around 45% of the vote, followed by Kılıçdaroğlu with around 32%. Oğan and İnce are both polling around 11% each. However, the outcome may change depending on various factors, such as the economic performance, the COVID-19 situation, the Kurdish question, and the foreign policy challenges that Turkey faces. It is also possible that some voters may switch their preferences between the first and second rounds, depending on the alliances and strategies of the candidates.

The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on 14 May 2023 are widely seen as a critical juncture for the future of political Islam in the country and beyond. The incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been ruling Turkey since 2003 with his Justice and Development Party (AKP), is facing a strong challenge from the opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who heads the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nation Alliance of several smaller parties. Two independent candidates, Sinan Oğan and Muharrem İnce, are also in the race, hoping to appeal to different segments of the electorate.

Erdoğan and his AKP have been widely regarded as the champions of political Islam in Turkey and the region, promoting conservative values in Turkey, defending Islamic causes around the world, and welcoming Islamist dissidents from Arab countries in his country. Erdoğan has also sought to revive Turkey's role as a regional power and a leader of the Muslim world, invoking the legacy of the Ottoman Empire and challenging the Western hegemony. Erdoğan's supporters view him as a defender of Islam and democracy against secularism and authoritarianism.

However, Erdoğan and his AKP have also faced criticism and opposition from various quarters, including some Islamic currents in Turkey and abroad. Erdoğan has been accused of undermining democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in Turkey, cracking down on dissent, media, civil society, and minorities, and pursuing an aggressive and interventionist foreign policy that has isolated Turkey from its allies and neighbors. Erdoğan has also been criticized for his handling of the economy, which has been suffering from high inflation, unemployment, debt, and currency depreciation. Erdoğan's opponents view him as a dictator who has betrayed the principles of Islam and democracy.

The outcome of the election will have significant implications for Islam and Muslims in Turkey. If Erdoğan wins another term, he will likely continue his policies of strengthening his presidential powers, consolidating his conservative-Islamist base, and pursuing his regional ambitions. He may also face more resistance and polarization from his opponents at home and abroad. If Erdoğan loses the election, he will have to relinquish his grip on power and accept a peaceful transition to a new government led by Kılıçdaroğlu or another candidate. This may open up new opportunities for dialogue, reform, and reconciliation in Turkey and the region. It may also pose new challenges for political Islam in Turkey and its relations with other Islamic movements in the Arab world.

The election will also have repercussions for Islam and Muslims beyond Turkey. Erdoğan has been seen as a source of inspiration and support for many Islamist movements in the Arab world, especially after the Arab Spring uprisings that challenged the authoritarian regimes in the region. Erdoğan has also been seen as a rival and threat by some Arab regimes that oppose political Islam and align with Western interests. The election will affect the balance of power and influence among these actors and their alliances. It will also affect the prospects for democracy, stability, and development in the Muslim world.